Heat alerts are in effect Monday for about 60 million people in the Lower 48, with all but about 5 million of them in the central part of the country. A swath of the United States from the Gulf Coast across much of the Plains and Midwest and up to southern South Dakota and Minnesota is forecast to see heat indexes — a combination of how heat and humidity feel — reaching 105 or higher Monday afternoon.
While the heat will make it less far north in coming days, much of the same region will endure daily punishment through the workweek. In much of the Northeast, a cold front pushing off the East Coast is delivering a respite after numerous record highs were set late last week through the weekend. For areas like the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, any breaks are probably short and intermixed with heat.
All signs favor a very hot start to July — including the possibility of a heat dome resurgence for the East Coast at the start of the month.
Where the heat wave is shifting
The hottest conditions are shifting west to the central and southern Plains as well as the Deep South. The footprint Tuesday will probably be similar.
Wednesday could bring widespread mid-90s to around 100 back to the Mid-Atlantic as high heat continues to blast the South, then toward Oklahoma and Texas.
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These spots stay hot to close out the workweek, as much of the Northeast sees another couple of days of lower temperatures. By the weekend, another resurgence of high heat is anticipated in the Ohio Valley, Lower Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions.
Where heat is worst this week
Temperatures from 100 to 105 are forecast to be widespread Monday across much of Kansas, as well as parts of surrounding states. Cities including Houston, Dallas, Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Kansas City and Omaha will see heat indexes of 105 to 110 or so.
Highs of 100 to 105 will be common again Tuesday in Kansas, Oklahoma and western Texas. Highs around 100 in parts of the Deep South will be accompanied by heat index values up to 105 or 110.
Additional days of 100 to 105 highs remain likely for Oklahoma to western Texas for the rest of the workweek.
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Wichita; Oklahoma City; Amarillo, Tex.; and Dallas are all likely to see multiple days at or above 100, and in some cases, it will be most or all days through Friday.
More records ahead
Record high potential is most acute across the central Plains on Monday:
- Lincoln, Neb., is forecast to beat its record of 103.
- Wichita is forecast to be near its record of 103.
- Scottsbluff, Neb., is forecast to be near its record of 102.
- Greenville, Miss., is forecast to beat its record of 99.
Tuesday’s record high potential shifts to the South where highs will be near 100.
On Wednesday, record high threats return to the Mid-Atlantic.
Record risk is more nebulous thereafter, but more are also a good bet, especially in the South and occasionally northward. Record warm lows will be more numerous and fairly widespread.
Records from the latest stretch of heat
It was the hottest weekend (and days prior) in several years for the entirety of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Locations in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia set multiple record highs over the past week. In DuBois, Pa., six days out of the seven saw record highs. The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, N.J., tallied four. Hartford, Conn., notched three.
Over the past week, an average of about 200 daily records for maximum high and low temperatures were set each day, with a peak of about 250 on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to data compiled by the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Roughly 5.5 warm records were set for every 1 record cold.
A few cities reached the century mark, including Baltimore (101); Newark (100); Reading, Pa. (101); Raleigh, N.C. (100); Toms River, N.J. (100); and Washington (100). Additionally, Charlottesville (99); Boston (98); Hartford (98); Millinocket, Maine (97); and Philadelphia (98) reached the upper 90s.
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Caribou, Maine, was among spots reaching all-time marks. It hit 96, tying the hottest temperature ever recorded there.
Hundreds of record warm lows were also breached.
Washington’s low of 81 on Sunday was the warmest so early in summer and second-warmest on record in June. It came sandwiched between a near-record high Saturday and a record high Sunday.
The warmest nights have increased considerably more rapidly than the hottest days as the globe warms due to human-caused climate change.
July could be more scorching than normal
Weather Service forecasts for July indicate high odds of a hotter-than-usual July in much of the country, especially the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as well as areas bordering the continental divide into the Desert Southwest.
Two bouts of cooler air also will probably target the northern tier, Great Lakes and Northeast through the end of June.
Signals from the most skillful weather modeling suggest the resurgence of a potent heat dome focused on the East Coast by early July, potentially bouncing around with time.
Studies have established that persistence, areal coverage and intensity of heat domes are increasing as the planet warms. Summers featuring resilient record heat are expected to become the norm, including where it is not at the moment, although significant seasonal variability remains possible.
