Tristan H. co*ckcroft
Aug 15, 2024, 11:43 AM
Fantasy football might be a casual game to some, but one of the best ways to boost your experience and knowledge of the sport -- and with it, your resulting success -- is to familiarize yourself with a deeper subsection of the player pool.
For a heightened challenge, why not give a 12-teamer, 14-teamer or even a dynasty league a try? Reaching outside your comfort zone, to demand your insight into more than the 160 players selected in an ESPN standard draft, can even boost your success in that shallow format, as it requires you to know upfront players who will wind up being in-season pickups in standard leagues. Getting to those players before your competition is critical.
Remember, things change swiftly and dramatically in the NFL, even within the first few weeks of the season. By midseason, most successful fantasy teams have a different complexion than they did upon exiting the draft.
To help get you started digging deeper into the player pool, listed below is my annual list of "deep sleepers," players who by all accounts will not -- and in many cases should not -- be selected in standard 10-team ESPN drafts, but who have decent odds of contributing to fantasy teams at some point during the upcoming season. Some of these players can even be handy late-round targets in those 12- and 14-team leagues, as well as in dynasty formats.
Jot these names down and keep tabs on them in the early weeks. If things fall into place, any of them could become a key part of your championship quest. For example, Puka Nacua was one of the names from last year's list.
First, remember this is a deep sleepers column, meaning you won't even find players I value as late-rounders in standard leagues, such as Jaleel McLaughlin, Marvin Mims Jr. and Luke Musgrave. The purpose of this list is to dig even deeper into the player pool, familiarizing you with names you might not know yet but certainly should want to.
Greg Dortch, WR, Arizona Cardinals: We'll begin with perhaps the most prominent of the names on the list, though that has amounted to his having been selected in only 0.5% of ESPN leagues to date. Dortch has had his moments for the Cardinals over the past two seasons, playing at least 75% of their offensive snaps in nine games in that time and averaging 14.5 PPR fantasy points with a 71.3% catch rate in them. Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is drawing almost all of the attention from their roster in early drafts, but Dortch should figure as a frequently targeted option as a slot receiver or on the outside in three-receiver sets.
Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: A dual-sport star at Princeton, Iosivas got a brief, extended look with the Bengals over the final three weeks of 2023, during which time he caught nine passes and scored 28.2 PPR fantasy points while playing 62% of the offensive snaps. He subsequently spent the offseason training with personal receiver coach Drew Lieberman, who had previously worked with previous breakout candidates Brandon Aiyuk, Evan Engram and Mohamed Sanu. Iosivas shapes up as the team's likely slot receiver following the offseason departure of Tyler Boyd. Considering the team's top two receivers, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, missed a combined 15 games the past three seasons, Iosivas should see a big boost in opportunities in what is likely to be one of the better scoring offenses.
Bo Melton, WR, Green Bay Packers: After spending most of last season bouncing between the team's practice squad and regular roster, Melton broke through with a 105-yard, 22.5-point Week 17. That earned him a place on the team's divisional round playoff roster, as well as a chance to compete for a more prominent role this year. He's a speedy receiver who draws raves for his work ethic, good traits for a player who, despite his fifth-on-the-depth-chart status, is nevertheless part of a promising offense that likes to rely on the hot hand at the position.
Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens: His rookie campaign might have ended prematurely due to a torn ACL in Week 15 -- an injury that threatens to keep him on the PUP list through September of this season -- but once healthy, he could quickly emerge as Derrick Henry's primary backup thanks to his explosive speed. Mitchell turned 26% of his rushing attempts into gains of at least 10 yards, and he averaged 4.3 yards over expected per attempt, both of those rates best in the league among players with at least as many as his 47 attempts. While players coming off that surgery often aren't their full selves until their second season back -- and Mitchell is unlikely to see game action before October -- he's also one of the highest-upside running back fliers on a run-oriented team lacking in competition at his position.
Colby Parkinson, TE, Los Angeles Rams: The Rams surprised many by signing this 25-year-old with 57 career catches on his résumé to a three-year deal that included $15.5 million guaranteed, but apparently they saw something in his performance with the Seattle Seahawks. Among Parkinson's 50 receptions the past two seasons, 10 went for 20-plus yards and he had a 7.3-yard average depth of target. The Rams appear committed to using multiple-TE sets more often this season, a strategy that makes sense at least in the year's early stages while Tyler Higbee works back to full strength following ACL/MCL injuries in January.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons: While a head-scratcher of a pick on draft day, Penix's arrival in Atlanta gives the team an intriguing, well-tested prospect should Kirk Cousins miss any additional time as a 36-year-old recovering from surgery for a torn Achilles. Penix played 48 games across six college seasons between Indiana and Washington, and in two years at the latter, totaled 67 touchdowns while being sacked on only 1.4% of his dropbacks and 5.5% of the time when pressured, both of those top-four numbers. He's unlikely to see a single snap except in late-game blowouts or barring further Cousins injury, but he's one of the more interesting backups to stash. The Falcons, after all, have a strong receiving game between Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson and Ray-Ray McCloud III.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers: His rookie season was one of the worst by any quarterback this century. His 33.4 QBR ranked sixth worst among quarterbacks who started at least 15 games (only Mark Sanchez's 2012, JaMarcus Russell's 2008, Matt Cassel's 2009, DeShone Kizer's 2017 and Sanchez's 2009 were worse). Nevertheless, the Panthers did their darnedest to improve some of the roster flaws that contributed to Young's struggles, between adding Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette to their receiver room, strengthening their offensive line by signing Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, and hiring head coach Dave Canales, under whom Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield enjoyed breakthrough seasons in 2022 and 2023. Young has a lot to prove. He also has a lot of career in which to do it. Many successful quarterbacks have had ugly rookie campaigns, but Young at least has more ingredients aligned this season to help get his career on track. He's certainly someone to track this preseason and in September.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants: A converted wide receiver who opened eyes with his measurables at the NFL combine, Tracy has a clear path to a meaningful role for a Giants team that will lean heavily on its running backs in the passing game. Devin Singletary's three-year deal guaranteeing $9.5 million gives him the look of the team's clear three-down back, but be aware that Singletary's 0.27 PPR fantasy point per touch during his five-year NFL career ranks dead last (among those with at least 500 touches from 2019 to 2023). Tracy had made strides in his race to begin 2024 as Singletary's primary backup, until an ankle injury in mid-August. Now it just looks like he may have to wait a little longer before becoming a potentially handy piece in PPR formats.
Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers: A sixth-round rookie who scored 14 touchdowns and led FBS running backs with 47 rushes of 10-plus yards for Troy last season, Vidal began training camp third on the depth chart for a Chargers team that figures to be one of the league's most run-heavy under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Bear in mind the team's top two backs, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, missed a combined 33 games due to injuries the past two seasons, and Roman, on Baltimore Ravens teams that featured both Edwards and Dobbins, squeezed 331 carries out of the other running backs on his roster in those seasons. Vidal brings a physical element this Chargers team will need, as 60% of his rushing yardage last season came after contact, and he finished fourth in forced missed tackles (84). He's an ideal speculative selection in any league larger than ESPN's standard.
